A few weeks ago I blogged about an economic model that has correctly identified or predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1980. It's called the "Bickers and Berry model" and it's named after political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver.
The duo just released an update to their August analysis:
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The model is based on state-level economic data rather than popular vote analysis.
The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.
And given the historical accuracy of this report, Republicans will take comfort in the prediction.
The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
Hmmm... I might need to adjust my Electoral College Map.
This is the last update Bickers and Berry will release before the election. And that's probably just fine by Mitt Romney.
